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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Boston -1½ +145 over Baltimore

Jake Bennett (LHP – Boston) – 2.38 ERA

Dean Kremer (RHP – Baltimore) – 4.15 ERA

1:35 PM EST. Jake Bennett has been one of the hottest starters in baseball over the past month, and his underlying numbers fully support the breakout. The left-hander enters with a 2.38 ERA and has been even better recently, posting a microscopic 0.82 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over his last month of work. Bennett has delivered six consecutive starts allowing two earned runs or fewer while producing an 18.8% K-BB%, a strong indicator of sustainable success. His xERA continues to sit comfortably below league average, his K/9 has hovered around 8.5, and his BB/9 has remained well under 2.5, giving him an outstanding combination of command and efficiency. Baltimore's lineup has also struggled against left-handed pitching recently, batting just .248 over the past month while striking out 27% of the time.

Dean Kremer enters with a 4.15 ERA, but his advanced metrics have been far less encouraging. His xERA trends higher than his traditional ERA, suggesting his current results have benefited from some favorable variance. Kremer's strikeout rate has settled around 7.5 K/9, well below Bennett's recent level of effectiveness, while his BB/9 remains close to 3.0. More concerning has been the quality of contact against him, as hard-hit balls and elevated exit velocities have consistently created stressful innings. Boston's offense has done an excellent job extending at-bats and forcing opposing starters to work deep into counts, a profile that matches up well against Kremer.

Bennett has been the superior pitcher by virtually every meaningful metric over the past several weeks, and his current form gives the Red Sox a legitimate edge from the opening pitch. Boston's disciplined offensive approach complements Bennett's consistency on the mound, making the plus-money run line an attractive wager in a matchup where the home side has every opportunity to win by multiple runs. Lets ride this wave right to the window!

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