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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh +115 over Cleveland

Jared Jones (RHP – Pittsburgh) – 4.37 ERA

Gavin Williams (RHP – Cleveland) – 3.81 ERA

7:10 PM EST. Don't let the pitching matchup fool you. Gavin Williams owns the better record and ERA, but this number feels inflated because of Cleveland's home-field advantage rather than the actual gap between these two clubs. Jared Jones has been sharp since returning to the Pirates' rotation, posting a solid 1.14 WHIP while striking out more than a batter per inning. Pittsburgh has won five of its last six games entering the second half, including an impressive sweep of first-place Milwaukee, showing this club is playing its best baseball at the right time.

Cleveland has enjoyed a strong season, but the Guardians continue to rely heavily on pitching because the offense has been inconsistent. Williams has been excellent overall with 134 strikeouts in just over 113 innings, yet he isn't untouchable, and Pittsburgh has become a much tougher lineup to navigate. Bryan Reynolds continues to anchor the offense, while the Pirates have received timely production throughout the lineup during their recent surge. As underdogs, this is exactly the type of team worth backing—a club arriving with momentum against a favorite that is priced more on reputation than current form.

The market is giving Cleveland plenty of respect because of Williams' 10-win season, but baseball is rarely that simple. Jones has the stuff to match zeroes early, and if this game turns into a battle of bullpens, Pittsburgh is more than capable of stealing it late. The Pirates have quietly climbed back into the National League Wild Card race and have been cashing tickets by playing fundamentally sound baseball. In a matchup where the line is shaded toward the home team.. Take Pittsburgh to pull the upset and continue its post-break momentum.

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