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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Milwaukee +115 over Pittsburgh

B. Sproat (RHP - Milwaukee) – 5.07 ERA B. Ashcraft (RHP - Pittsburgh) – 3.25 ERA

12:05 PM EST. Milwaukee has been playing stellar ball in its last 20 outings. We can jump on the bandwagon and get behind Brandon Sproat tonight. His overall ERA doesn't tell the story of how well he's been throwing the baseball lately. The rookie right-hander has made significant adjustments over the past month, posting a 2.88 ERA and 3.01 xERA across his last five starts while allowing just eight earned runs. His underlying metrics have been equally encouraging, highlighted by a 22% K-BB%, an improved 35% ball rate, a strong 13.6% swinging-strike rate, and a 43% ground-ball rate. Those are the indicators of a pitcher finding his rhythm, and Milwaukee catches Pittsburgh with Sproat pitching his best baseball of the season.

Braxton Ashcraft has been effective with a 3.25 ERA, but this is a difficult matchup against a Brewers lineup that continues to manufacture runs with patience, speed, and situational hitting. Milwaukee has been one of the National League's better road teams, consistently putting pressure on opposing defenses with aggressive baserunning and quality at-bats from top to bottom. While Pittsburgh has swung the bats well against right-handed pitching recently, the Pirates have also struck out at a high rate during that stretch, giving Sproat an opportunity to capitalize with his improving swing-and-miss arsenal.

The recent form of the starting pitchers is in our opinion closer than the season numbers suggest. Sproat has been trending sharply upward, while Ashcraft is priced as though he owns a clear edge on the mound. Milwaukee's balanced offense, solid bullpen, and ability to play clean baseball on the road make the Brewers the preferred side. Look for Sproat to continue his recent run of quality outings and for Milwaukee to leave Pittsburgh with a road victory.

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