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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Kansas City +100 over St. Louis

(RHP – Seth Lugo vs. RHP – Michael McGreevy)

The Cardinals are favored here largely because Michael McGreevy enters with a sparkling 2.99 ERA. On the surface, that looks impressive, but nearly every underlying metric suggests trouble ahead. McGreevy's xERA sits at 5.61, one of the largest gaps you'll find among qualified starters. He's striking out fewer than six batters per nine innings, owns one of the lowest strikeout rates among regular starters, and has benefited from an extremely favorable BABIP and strand rate. Those are not numbers that typically hold up over a full season.

Seth Lugo's profile tells a very different story. While his record and ERA don't jump off the page, his FIP is significantly better than McGreevy's, and he's continued to demonstrate the command and pitchability that have made him one of the more reliable veterans in the American League. Lugo returns after being struck by a line drive in his last outing, but all reports suggest he's ready to resume his regular role. His ability to change speeds and keep hitters off balance remains a major asset.

The market appears to be pricing this game almost entirely off ERA, and that's creating an opportunity. St. Louis has been mediocre against right-handed pitching over the past month, while Kansas City is essentially being offered at even money with the more trustworthy starter. McGreevy has done a tremendous job outperforming his indicators, but those indicators continue to flash warning signs. At this price, Kansas City is the side worth backing.

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