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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington +115 over Arizona

3:15 PM EST. At first glance, this looks like a difficult game to step in front of. Mike Soroka (RHP – ARI) has been outstanding for the Diamondbacks, posting a pure quality start in 10 of his 12 starts while delivering a 3.49 ERA and helping stabilize Arizona's rotation. There's no denying Soroka has been one of the better stories in baseball this season. However, betting is rarely about identifying the better pitcher. It's about identifying the better price, and that's where Washington becomes attractive.

The Nationals continue to be one of the most overlooked teams in baseball. Since the beginning of May, Washington owns an outstanding .831 OPS on the road, the best mark in the majors over that span. This lineup has become increasingly dangerous away from home, generating power, getting on base, and consistently putting pressure on opposing pitching staffs. The market still views Washington as a rebuilding club, but the offense has developed into a legitimate threat, particularly outside of Nationals Park.

Cade Cavalli (RHP – WAS) is another reason we're willing to take a shot. The former top prospect lost valuable development time recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he quietly finished strong after returning last season. The surface numbers didn't tell the whole story, as poor luck inflated his ERA while many of the underlying indicators remained encouraging. This season, Cavalli has continued to show signs of becoming the pitcher scouts envisioned. His strikeout ability remains intact, and his current 3.62 ERA suggests he's beginning to translate his raw talent into consistent major league production. Arizona enters this game having lost seven of its last 10 while dealing with a lengthy injury list and an offense that has struggled to find consistency.

The Diamondbacks remain a dangerous team, but they're being priced as though they're clearly superior to a Washington club that has been one of baseball's better road teams. We respect Soroka and everything he's accomplished this season, but the value lies with the underdog. Washington is swinging the bats extremely well, Cavalli offers far more upside than the market is giving him credit for, and the plus price is simply too attractive to ignore.

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