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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh -1½ +155 over Chicago

6:40 PM EST. At some point a losing streak becomes more than a losing streak. It becomes a crisis of confidence. That's where the Cubs are right now.

Chicago has dropped 10 straight games and the losses are beginning to snowball. The offense has completely disappeared. Against right-handed pitching over the past month, the Cubs are hitting just .207 and continue to struggle generating quality contact in key situations. The longer these streaks continue, the more pressure builds. Every at-bat becomes bigger. Every missed opportunity feels magnified. Contrary to popular belief, teams are not "due" to win simply because they've lost a bunch in a row. In many cases, each loss makes the next game more difficult than the last.

The Pirates hand the ball to Bubba Chandler (RHP - PIT), one of the most talented young arms in baseball. Chandler's overall numbers still show some rough edges, particularly his command. He has issued 34 walks in 47 innings and his 16% walk rate remains far too high. However, focusing solely on those numbers ignores the enormous upside that continues to flash every time he takes the mound.

Chandler is coming off the best start of his young career, allowing just one earned run while striking out 11 over five innings. The raw stuff is electric. He misses bats consistently, owns a quality swing-and-miss profile and has the type of arsenal capable of dominating lineups when he's around the strike zone. The Pirates don't need perfection from Chandler tonight. They simply need him to continue building on the momentum of his last outing against a lineup that is struggling to score runs against anyone.

The Cubs counter with Jameson Taillon (RHP - CHC), and there isn't much in his current profile that inspires confidence. Through 10 starts, Taillon is 2-4 with a 5.20 ERA and a nearly identical 5.23 expected ERA. When a pitcher's ERA and expected ERA match almost perfectly at an elevated number, it usually means what you're seeing is exactly what you're getting. His strikeout ability has declined, his fly-ball tendencies remain concerning and he no longer possesses the swing-and-miss arsenal needed to consistently escape trouble.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's offense has shown considerably more life than Chicago's and now gets a favorable matchup against a veteran starter whose underlying metrics suggest further trouble ahead. The Pirates have been playing with confidence while the Cubs look like a team desperately searching for answers.

The run line offers the better value. If Pittsburgh wins, there is a strong chance it wins comfortably. Chicago's offense is struggling to put crooked numbers on the board, while Taillon's profile creates opportunities for the Pirates to separate as the game progresses.

The Cubs may eventually snap out of this tailspin, but there is no reason to pay a premium waiting for it to happen. Pittsburgh has the hotter team, the better current form and the pitcher with the significantly higher ceiling.

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