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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Chicago +105 over Kansas City

8:40 PM EST. Stephen Kolek (RHP, Kansas City) is not the type of pitcher that should ever be laying road chalk, especially against a competitive team that has been playing solid baseball for weeks now. Kolek’s overall numbers may look acceptable on the surface, but the deeper profile screams regression and extreme hittability.

Kolek’s profile is heavily dependent on contact management and ground balls because he simply does not miss enough bats. That issue showed up immediately in his first start this season. Yes, he survived six innings, but he struck out only three batters and generated a microscopic swing-and-miss rate of under 2.5%, which is almost impossible to sustain successfully at the major-league level.

That means opposing hitters are constantly putting the ball in play. And when teams consistently put balls in play, they generally hit around .300 over the course of a game unless they are lining out directly at defenders all night long. That’s not a formula that deserves favoritism on the road.

Erick Fedde (RHP, Chicago White Sox) is hardly an ace himself, but that’s beside the point. Fedde is not being asked to justify favorite pricing here. In fact, if the roles were reversed and Chicago was laying this number, there’s a good chance the value would actually fall on Kansas City. The price always dictates the play.

The South Side enters this matchup with a respectable 19-21 record and has gone 6-4 over its last 10 games while getting strong bullpen work and surprisingly decent starting pitching. Meanwhile, Kansas City has been  awful away from home where the Royals have won just six of 18 road games. That simply does not qualify as road favorite material.

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