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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

L.A. Angels -1½ +165 over Chicago

9:38 PM EST. This is a fade on Erick Fedde. The ERA looks fine. The rest doesn’t. His expected ERA is much higher, the swing-and-miss rate is low, and hitters are putting too many balls in play. That combination catches up. It always does.

Fedde’s last start will draw attention — seven innings, no walks, six strikeouts. That’s noise. Over a larger sample, the profile is the same: limited strikeout ability, too much contact, and very little margin for error. When contact turns into damage, it piles up fast.

Chicago doesn’t offer much support. If Fedde runs into trouble, there isn’t much behind him to bail him out. That puts pressure on every inning, and against a lineup that can capitalize on traffic, that’s a problem.

Samuel Aldegheri is largely irrelevant to the handicap. This is about targeting a vulnerable starter at a plus price. When Fedde gives it up, it won’t be in singles. If this hits, it likely clears the number.

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