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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Tampa Bay -1½ +145 over Minnesota

1:40 PM EST. We’re going to continue our fade of Minnesota here. Jesse Scholtens (RHP – TB) is expected to operate as a bulk reliever for the Rays and profiles well in this matchup. None of Scholtens’ skills jump off the page — a 20% strikeout rate, 16% K-BB%, 10.7% swinging-strike rate, and a 3.65 xERA over 15.1 innings — but he doesn’t need to be dominant to succeed against this lineup. What he does bring is stability, and more importantly, he draws an opponent that’s struggling to generate consistent offense.

Minnesota has dropped eight of its last nine games, and the underlying production hasn’t been much better than the results. The Twins are sitting on a mediocre .704 OPS and a 98 wRC+, which is essentially league average — hardly the profile of a team poised to break out offensively.

On the other side, Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP – MIN) continues to flash warning signs. Through 25 innings this season, he’s recorded just 13 strikeouts against 10 walks, a poor combination that reflects shaky command and limited swing-and-miss ability. His 6.5% swinging-strike rate is well below major-league norms, and a 32% ground-ball rate leaves him vulnerable to hard contact and extra-base damage. With an ERA north of five and an expected ERA above six, this is not a profile that inspires confidence.

Minnesota is sliding, the pitching matchup favors Tampa Bay, and the market is still offering plus money on the run line. That’s the type of setup worth attacking.

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