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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cleveland -1½ +135 over Toronto

7:07 PM EST. Gavin Williams (RHP- CLE) is coming off a dominant quality start against Baltimore, striking out 11 over seven strong innings while allowing just one earned run. He’s off to an excellent start this season with a 34% strikeout rate, 20% K-BB%, 14.5% swinging-strike rate, and a 2.95 xERA. Those are frontline numbers, not back-end filler.

Williams has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all five starts this season and already has two quality starts under his belt. He also carries a 1.9 strikeout rating into this matchup against a Toronto lineup that strikes out 19.4% of the time versus right-handed pitching while hitting just .254. That’s not a profile that scares anyone, especially against a power arm that can miss bats.

On the other side, Max Scherzer (RHP - TOR) is trying to hold off Father Time, and the early returns suggest the battle is getting tougher. The thumb injury that cost him three months last season may have been the first real sign of decline. His control and velocity have held steady, but the swinging-strike rate dipped and his HR/9 climbed to a career high — never a good combination for a pitcher pushing the back end of his career.

Sure, the glass-half-full crowd will argue that more distance from the injury could restore the bite on his slider. Maybe. But at this stage, that's speculation, not evidence. His strikeout rate is way down this year and his ERA and xERA are both way up, thus bettors may want to think twice before buying tickets to this latest “Mad Max” sequel.

Cleveland has the better arm, the better trajectory, and the better matchup. Getting plus money on the run line with the hotter pitcher is a value spot we’re not passing up.

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