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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Miami +110 over Milwaukee

1:40 PM EST. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP – Milwaukee Brewers) vs Eury Pérez (RHP – Miami Marlins) is a matchup where the surface numbers lean one way, but the deeper analytics suggest there’s value on the home underdog. Misiorowski’s 3.43 ERA jumps off the page, but his underlying profile raises some red flags. His xERA and xFIP both trend notably higher, pointing to regression risk driven by elevated walk rates and inconsistent command. While his raw stuff generates strikeouts, he’s allowing more hard contact than his ERA indicates, and pitchers with that profile can run into trouble quickly when facing patient lineups.

Pérez, despite carrying a 5.40 ERA, is a classic buy-low candidate when you dig into the metrics. His xFIP sits significantly lower, supported by a strong strikeout rate and improving control as the season progresses. He’s been hurt by sequencing issues and some bad luck on balls in play, but his ability to miss bats and limit quality contact suggests better results ahead. When Pérez is locating his fastball and pairing it effectively with his off-speed arsenal, he has the tools to neutralize lineups and work deeper into games than his ERA would suggest.

At home, that gap between perception and reality becomes even more valuable. The Miami Marlins are in a strong position to capitalize on a Milwaukee starter who may be due for regression, while backing a pitcher whose underlying numbers point toward positive correction. The Milwaukee Brewers may be priced as the better team overall, but this specific pitching matchup is far closer than the line implies. With plus money attached, Miami is the side to take.

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