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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington +100 over San Francisco

4:05 PM EST. Adrian Houser (RHP – San Francisco Giants) vs Cade Cavalli (RHP – Washington Nationals) sets up as a matchup where the surface numbers don’t fully tell the story, and that’s where the value lies. Houser comes in with an ERA north of five, and the underlying metrics don’t offer much relief—his xERA and xFIP both sit in that same range, pointing to continued struggles with command and hard contact. He’s allowing too many baserunners and not missing enough bats to escape trouble, which is a dangerous combination against a lineup that can grind out at-bats. His ground-ball profile helps at times, but when he falls behind in counts, he’s forced into hittable spots and gets punished.

Cavalli, on the other hand, has been more stable than his 4.80 ERA suggests. His underlying numbers—particularly his xFIP—trend lower, indicating he’s been a bit unlucky in high-leverage spots. He’s generating a stronger strikeout rate than Houser and doing a better job limiting quality contact, especially with his fastball-slider mix. The key difference here is swing-and-miss ability; Cavalli has it, Houser largely doesn’t. In a matchup where both pitchers can allow traffic, the one who can escape jams with strikeouts holds a clear edge.

At home, that edge becomes even more meaningful. Washington has the advantage of familiarity and last at-bats, and against a pitcher like Houser who struggles to put hitters away, that can tilt innings quickly. If Cavalli pitches to his underlying metrics—and there’s every reason to believe he will—he gives his team the better chance to control this game from the mound. With the line sitting at even money, the value is clearly on Washington to get the job done at home.

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