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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Minnesota +115 over Toronto

1:37 PM EST. Taj Bradley’s 1.12 ERA jumps off the page, but it's too early in the season to rely solely on that number,dig into the analytics and you’ll see some warning signs. His xERA and xFIP both sit significantly higher, pointing to regression driven by an unsustainably low BABIP and a strand rate that’s tough to maintain over time. He’s been good, no doubt—but not that good. When pitchers are outperforming their expected metrics by this kind of margin, the market often overprices them.

Max Scherzer, on the other hand, is the kind of arm you trust when you’re betting into plus money. His 3.38 ERA is backed by a much more stable analytical profile, with an xERA and xFIP that closely align, reinforcing that what you’re seeing is real. The strikeout rate remains elite, the walk rate is controlled, and his ability to limit hard contact still plays at a high level. Even at this stage of his career, Scherzer’s command and pitch mix continue to generate weak contact and swing-and-miss, which is exactly what you want against a Toronto lineup that can be aggressive early in counts.

In my opinion, this is a classic “buy low, sell high” opportunity. Bradley’s shiny ERA is inflating Toronto’s price, while Scherzer’s steadiness is being slightly undervalued. Minnesota doesn’t need to dominate here—they just need their ace to keep them in control while regression starts to creep in on the other side. In a stat-driven game, the edge belongs to the pitcher with sustainable metrics, not the one riding variance. At plus money on the road, Minnesota is winning this coin flip for us.

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