Pinnacle   -1½ +230   BET365   -1½ +230  Sportsinteraction  -1½ +230  888port  -1½ +230

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Toronto -1½ +230 over L.A. Dodgers

Rogers Centre – Toronto, ON

7:00 PM ET. What do the Blue Jays have to do to get some respect around here? They’re one win away from a World Series title, they’ve beaten the defending champs three times in five games, and yet the market is still gifting the Dodgers the benefit of the doubt. The number says it all — Toronto up 3-2, at home, with their ace on the hill, and you can still find +230 on the runline. That’s not a line based on form or matchup; it’s a line based on reputation.

The Dodgers have been running on fumes for two weeks. Their lineup has gone cold, their bullpen is fried, and they’ve been sloppy in the field. They’re hitting a buck-ninety in the Series and have been outscored 29-18 overall. The offense looks tight, like a team that’s been pressing since Game 1. When Dave Roberts says, “We just have to compete and fight in the batter’s box,” that’s a polite way of saying they’re guessing up there.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was brilliant in Game 2 — we’re not taking that away from him — but duplicating that performance on short rest, in this environment, against a lineup seeing him for the second time, is a tall order. The Rogers Centre will be shaking. Every pitch will feel like it weighs ten pounds. That’s pressure you can’t simulate in bullpens or spring training.

Meanwhile, Kevin Gausman’s been nails all October. He was outstanding in the Game 2 loss, keeping pace with Yamamoto pitch for pitch until one mistake in the seventh. Gausman at home, in a clincher, with that splitter working? That’s a problem for an L.A. lineup that hasn’t been able to string together quality at-bats.

Trey Yesavage’s Game 5 masterpiece changed the tone of this Series. The Dodgers looked beaten walking off the field that night. They know what’s coming. Toronto has been the better team in every area that matters — defense, bullpen, approach, energy. They’re confident, loose, and playing for history.

This line is pure overreaction to brand names, payroll and the market's perception that the Dodgers are the superior side. Meanwhile, Toronto has dominated the run of play, and yet the market keeps hanging prices like the Dodgers are due to turn it around. The Jays don’t care about narratives, they just keep punching back.

This is the moment. The Rogers Centre will be a madhouse, Gausman will feed off it, and the Jays will send Canada into chaos.

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