Pinnacle    +115     BET365  +115  Sportsinteraction  +115  888port  +1!5

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Seattle +115 over Toronto

ALCS - Game 7

Rogers Centre - Toronto, ON

8:00 PM ET. This is the kind of spot we live for. Game 7. One team with ghosts in its rafters and all the pressure in the world. The other playing with house money, free as can be, and one win away from making history. Seattle has never been to the World Series. Toronto hasn’t been since Joe Carter touched them all in ’93. That gap is older than some of the players on the field tonight, and you can feel the weight of it hanging over Rogers Centre like a fog.

Toronto did what it had to do to force this game. Credit where it’s due. They capitalized on Seattle’s sloppiness and took advantage of three errors, three double plays, and a team that looked tight for the first time all postseason. Yet despite everything that went wrong, Seattle still had chances to break it open early. That’s not failure—it’s frustration waiting to be released. You can’t fake the kind of resilience that gets a team to Game 7 on the road, and the Mariners have worn that badge all year.

Now it’s George Kirby’s turn to answer. He was rocked earlier in this series, sure, but that only makes this setup more delicious. The market will treat his Game 3 line like gospel when in reality, he’s one of the most precise strike-throwers in baseball and far too talented to implode twice against the same lineup. Pitchers like Kirby live for redemption spots. Everything resets tonight, and Seattle’s bullpen—arguably their biggest weapon—has been prepped and protected specifically for this.

Shane Bieber will counter for Toronto, and while he’s been solid, he’s not the same pitcher that won a Cy Young four years ago. His velocity is down, his margin for error thinner, and this Mariners lineup isn’t the same one he faced a week ago. Seattle’s at-bats have been grinding, long, and relentless all postseason. They’ve seen Bieber’s full mix already, and familiarity breeds contact.

Toronto’s stars have carried them—particularly Guerrero Jr., who’s in some kind of video-game zone—but if the Jays don’t get early offense, this could turn on them quickly. Pressure does funny things, and Rogers Centre has seen more October heartbreak than celebration in recent years. Every misplay, every stranded runner, every hanging slider is amplified under that roof.

Seattle’s been the better defensive team all season. They’ve got the better bullpen, the steadier mindset, and the looser bench. The Jays have the pedigree; the Mariners have the pulse. We’ll gladly take the road dog here in a Game 7 where the “better story” also happens to be the better bet.

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