Pinnacle    -1½ +165     BET365  -1½ +165   Sportsinteraction  -1½ +165  888port  -1½ +165

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Seattle -1½ +165 over Toronto

ALCS – Game Three

10:08 PM ET. Seattle is up 2-0 in the ALCS and comes home with a chance to choke out the Blue Jays before this thing even thinks about getting back to Canada. Oddsmakers are still hesitant to price the Mariners like the superior side, which is precisely why we’re stepping in here.

Toronto’s offense looked great against the Yankees — 34 runs in four games — but that was then. Against real pitching, the Jays have been exposed for what they are: a boom-or-bust team that relies on mistake pitches to do all the work. The Mariners aren’t making many of those. They’ve limited Toronto to just four runs in two games, all while out-hustling, out-executing, and frankly, out-toughing them. Seattle’s bats aren’t just hot — they’re confident, disciplined, and built for this stage.

Enter George Kirby, one of the most underrated arms in the sport. Kirby’s postseason numbers don’t tell the full story. His command and sequencing have been elite, and he’s pitched like a man who knows the moment doesn’t scare him. He’ll get the ball at home, in front of a city that’s starving to bury Toronto once and for all. Expect that first-pitch strike machine to go right after a Blue Jays lineup that looks uncomfortable and pressing.

Meanwhile, Toronto counters with Shane Bieber, a name with weight but not much bite anymore. Bieber was an ace four years ago — now he’s a soft-tossing reclamation project trying to rediscover his form. He hasn’t gone beyond the third inning in either of his last two starts, and he’s facing a lineup that grinds at-bats and punishes pitchers who can’t miss bats. This park and matchup are terrible for him.

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