Pinnacle    +125    BET365  +125   Sportsinteraction  +125  888port  +125

Posted at 8:00AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Seattle +125 over Detroit

T-Mobile Park – Seattle, WA

MLB Playoffs – ALDS Game Five

8:00 PM ET. The narrative writes itself: Seattle blew a 3–0 lead in Detroit, coughed up nine straight runs, and now the market has declared them dead. That’s what happens when a collapse gets replayed on every highlight reel — emotion replaces logic, and suddenly, the market forgets there’s still baseball left to play. Game Five is tonight, in Seattle, and one swing in the first inning can erase the noise.

Tarik Skubal is the name everyone’s paying for. He’s brilliant, no question. The southpaw owns elite metrics across the board and deserves the “ace” tag. But this number doesn’t match his reputation. If Skubal’s dominance was as inevitable as the narrative says, this line wouldn’t sit at -140 — it would be in the -180 range, minimum. The market’s hesitation is loud. It’s a setup, and those rushing to lay lumber on the Tigers are paying the Skubal tax.

Now, let’s talk about George Kirby. His season stat line (4.21 ERA) doesn’t jump off the page, but everything beneath it screams elite. His 3.01 FIP, 14.4 K/9, and absurdly unlucky .417 BABIP tell the real story. Kirby’s been hit by variance, not regression. He’s a strike-throwing machine who thrives under playoff lights — career 1.38 ERA and 2.09 FIP in October — and that profile fits perfectly in this kind of elimination spot.

Game One of this series showed exactly who he is. Kirby punched out eight Tigers over five innings and allowed just two runs. Detroit won that night in extras, but it was a coin flip — the kind of game that’s decided by a bad bounce or a bloop single, not dominance.

Seattle’s bullpen is still the more trustworthy group. Their overall profile this season — lower ERA, better WHIP, higher K-rate — stands up despite one bad night. That Game Four implosion was the exception, not the rule. Offensively, the Mariners also carry more balance and more power threats. Detroit’s path to victory remains razor-thin: Skubal has to be near-perfect again, because once he leaves the mound, the advantage flips back to Seattle.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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