Pinnacle    -1½ +145     BET365  -1½ +145    Sportsinteraction  -1½ +145   888port  -1½ +145

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Milwaukee -1½ +145 over Chicago

Wrigley Field – Chicago, IL

NLDS Game 4

9:00 PM ET. We tore up our Brewers tickets yesterday, and that’s exactly why we’re getting right back on the horse today. Losing a close one doesn’t mean the read was wrong — it means variance bit us. If anything, the setup for Game 4 is even better than it was yesterday, and we’re getting a plus-price on the run line with the far better pitcher and team.

The Cubs have been the ones jumping out early in this series. They’ve scored in the first inning of every game, and yet they’re still on the brink. That tells you plenty about who’s built to last. Chicago’s offense is living off short bursts — one or two crooked numbers — while Milwaukee keeps grinding, controlling pace, and winning the innings that actually decide games. The Cubs got their one win in the series after surviving a tense finish last night, but that took everything they had. Emotionally and physically, that’s a tough ask to replicate 24 hours later.

Freddy Peralta will likely get the call again for the Crew, and that’s the ideal scenario. He’s coming off a 17-win season, shut the Cubs down in Game 1, and owns them historically (9-3, 3.21 ERA in 22 career appearances). Milwaukee has full confidence with him on the hill — the exact opposite of what Chicago feels when Matthew Boyd gets the ball. Boyd’s 34 years old, he’s been bounced around, and his 9.00 career ERA vs. Milwaukee is no typo. He lasted all of two-thirds of an inning in the opener, and nothing suggests he’ll suddenly solve the Brewers’ lineup now.

The public sees the Cubs’ early-inning fireworks and thinks they’ve figured something out. In reality, they’ve been running hot at the top of the order and are due for regression. Milwaukee’s lineup is too disciplined, too deep, and too comfortable facing Boyd to let another opportunity slide. The Brewers are built for October — deep arms, veteran bats, and a short memory.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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