Pinnacle    +150    BET365  +150   Sportsinteraction  +150  888port  +150

Posted at 8:00AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Toronto +150 over New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY

ALDS Game Four

7:00 PM ET. The market is intoxicated by the pinstripes again. One heroic night from Aaron Judge, one comeback under the lights in the Bronx, and the pendulum swings all the way back. The narrative says momentum is everything in October — that Judge has single-handedly saved the season, that the Yankees are “back.” You’ll pay through the nose for that story tonight. We’ll happily fade it.

The Yankees hand the ball to rookie Cam Schlittler, who was nails in his postseason debut against Boston but now gets a far different assignment. The Jays have already seen him twice — once in September when they chased him in under two innings — and that’s critical context. Toronto fouled off 24 pitches in that short outing, forcing him to labor for every out, and that’s not a random quirk. The Jays’ lineup grinds. They extend counts. They punish mistakes. That was true before Tuesday, and it remains true after one bad half of baseball. Schlittler’s high-spin, high-effort approach isn’t built for repeat exposure, and this is a nasty lineup to be facing again on short rest and at full adrenaline.

Toronto, meanwhile, will run the bullpen carousel — not because they’re desperate, but because they can. Their relief corps has been quietly elite, and John Schneider’s mix-and-match approach plays perfectly in this spot. The Jays are built to string together five or six one-inning bursts of fresh velocity and movement, and the Yankees’ lineup outside of Judge has been an ongoing issue. New York’s bottom four hitters are a black hole, and when you’re laying a premium price, you need nine dangerous bats, not one.

Everyone’s talking about the Jays’ “collapse” in Game 3, but dig into it. Two errors set up four of New York’s nine runs. That’s variance, not structural failure. Toronto still has the better bullpen, the better team defense, and arguably the more flexible bench. Guerrero Jr. is destroying baseballs, Ernie Clement is barreling everything, and if Springer or Bichette wakes up for even a night, Toronto becomes a live wire once again.

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