Pinnacle    +105    BET365  +105   Sportsinteraction  +105  888port  +105

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Milwaukee +105 over Chicago

Wrigley Field – Chicago, IL

MLB Playoffs – Divisional Round Game Three

5:00 PM ET. Once again, the market is overreacting to urgency. Chicago is “supposed to win” because they’re at home and down 0–2, but “must win” isn’t an edge — it’s a surcharge. Oddsmakers know exactly what they’re doing when they hang a short price on a team facing elimination.

The Cubs hand the ball to Jameson Taillon, and that’s all we need to know. Taillon’s surface numbers look tidy — 11–7 with a 3.68 ERA — but his foundation is built on sand. His .232 BABIP and 80% strand rate scream regression, and his FIP (4.68) tells the real story. Combine that with a meager 30% groundball rate, and we’re looking at a pitcher who’s been living on borrowed time.

Milwaukee turns to Quinn Priester, and while he may not have the name recognition, his metrics are far more sustainable. Priester’s 13–3 mark with a 3.32 ERA is backed by normal variance and a 56% groundball rate that plays perfectly against this launch-happy Cubs lineup. Chicago wants to elevate, but Priester forces hitters to beat the dirt.

Through two games, Milwaukee’s contact-based, small-ball approach has shredded Chicago’s pitching. The Brewers have averaged eight runs per game while giving up just three. They’re cleaner, sharper, and more composed — exactly the kind of team built to end a series, not extend one.

The Cubs may “need” this game, but so what? Desperation doesn’t make Taillon’s FIP any prettier. It just makes the line shorter. We’ll take the value side with Milwaukee to finish the job.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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