Pinnacle  -1½ +120  BET365  -1½ +120   Sportsinteraction  -1½ +120

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Detroit -1½ +120 over Cleveland

Progressive Field - Cleveland, OH

6:40 PM ET. The story here is the Guardians, who sit just one game behind Detroit in the AL Central and have clawed their way into the third Wild Card spot. Cleveland just had a 10-game win streak snapped on Sunday, and with Gavin Williams — the same arm who nearly no-hit the Mets earlier this year — on the mound, the Guardians are taking back what appears to be a tasty number at home, while the Tigers are actually in a spot where they are laying a reduced number. We'll explain.

Pitching for Detroit is none other than Tarik Skubal. Skubal has been every bit as dominant as he was last season when he took home the Cy Young, and more often than not he’s priced in the -200 range regardless of venue location. The fact he’s sitting more modestly here has little to do with Gavin Williams’ quality and everything to do with Cleveland’s recent win streak and the storyline surrounding their playoff push. This is not a pitching duel though because if it was the Guardians would actually be priced shorter.

When you bet Cleveland, you’re betting a story and while Williams is talented, the gap between Tarik Skubal and just about any pitcher — let alone Williams — is significant. This is a straight numbers play. The Tigers are underpriced here, and with Skubal dealing, the setup points to Detroit winning this one at margin because Skubal has the wherewithal to blank any offense let alone one as inconsistent that Cleveland's has been over large stretches. The disparity in pitching will do the rest and the fact the Tigers are a modest number to win at margin is the clue we need to deduce that Detroit can win this comfortably with Skub dealing.

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