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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Cleveland +100 over Minnesota

Target Field – Minneapolis, MN

2:10 PM ET. The market has shrugged off Cleveland’s run because it came at the expense of Kansas City and Chicago. That’s lazy. The Guardians also swept Detroit while they were hot and clipped Tarik Skubal along the way. This club is grinding like every inning matters because it does — they’re chasing the last wild card.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is priced here like they still have something to play for. They don’t. The Twins are mailing it in while the market falls in love with Joe Ryan’s shiny surface stats. Ryan has been good, sure, but once he hands it over, the game tilts hard toward Cleveland. The Twins’ bullpen is bottom tier across the board, while the Guardians’ relief corps has been nails all season.

Logan Allen doesn’t need to win this game himself. He just has to keep it close long enough for the late innings to take over. Spotting Minnesota as a short home favorite looks like value on paper, but it’s not. The wrong team is favored.

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