Pinnacle  +140  BET365  +140  Sportsinteraction  +140

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Miami +140 over Texas

Globe Life Field – Arlington, TX

8:05 PM ET. Tyler Mahle returns tonight with a sparkling 2.34 ERA attached to his name, and the market has priced this game accordingly. That ERA, however, is smoke and mirrors. His xERA of 4.47 paints a truer picture, supported by an unsustainably low .253 BABIP and an 82% strand rate. Before going down in June, Mahle surrendered eight runs on 15 hits across his last 11 innings. That’s not ace-level — it’s variance.

On the other side, Janson Junk owns a surface ERA north of 4.40, but the underlying skills show him to be every bit Mahle’s equal, if not slightly better. His FIP sits at 3.31 compared to Mahle’s 3.42, and his xERA at 4.54 mirrors the results. Junk has been victimized by a .302 BABIP and a brutal 63% strand rate. Normalize those numbers, and his profile sharpens up immediately.

What we’re left with is essentially a coin flip being priced like a mismatch. The Rangers are spotting a massive premium based on narrative — Mahle’s “return” — not reality. At +140, Miami holds the overlay and the value. This is the Fish or nothing.

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