Pinnacle  -1½ +155  BET365  -1½ +155   Sportsinteraction  -1½ +155

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

NY Mets -1½ +155 over San Diego

Citi Field – Flushing, NY

7:10 PM ET. On paper, the Padres are the safer side. They’ve dominated this head-to-head, sweeping the Mets in July and winning four straight overall. They hand the ball to Michael King, who looks the part of an ace again with a 2.87 ERA over 12 starts. The Mets counter with Clay Holmes, who has dropped his last two decisions with the club losing three straight of his outings. The case for San Diego almost makes itself.

Which is exactly the point. San Diego is overpriced. New York is the undervalued side here, and the run line offers the best path to profit. Despite their chaos, the Mets are 17 games over .500 at Citi Field. San Diego has been a losing team on the road. That’s a swing big enough to erase the surface-level pitching mismatch.

Profile matters, too. King induces ground balls just 39% of the time, while Holmes sits at 55%. The Mets thrive when they’re elevating and driving the ball, especially at Citi. King’s profile plays right into that, while Holmes has the arsenal to suppress the Padres’ small-ball approach.

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