Pinnacle  -1½ +165  BET365  -1½ +165   Sportsinteraction  -1½ +165

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

St. Louis -1½ +165 over Cincinnati

Busch Stadium – St. Louis, MO

7:45 PM ET. Forget playoff races for a second. What matters here is perception. Zack Littell looks like the better arm than Matthew Liberatore — 9-8 with a 3.78 ERA versus 7-12 with a 4.35 ERA. That’s the stat line the market leans on.

Scratch the surface and it crumbles. Littell’s season is built on a .258 BABIP and an absurd 82% strand rate. His xERA is 4.64, his FIP 4.94. He’s more lucky than good. Liberatore’s ERA is worse, but his FIP is 4.14, far more stable. His BABIP is elevated, his strand rate depressed. In other words, he’s been on the wrong side of variance.

Oddsmakers know this, which is why the Cardinals are favored. The market doesn’t. We get to exploit that gap. Cards at home with the more trustworthy underlying profile are live to win by margin.

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