Pinnacle  +105  BET365  +105   Sportsinteraction  +105

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Texas +105 over Houston

Dalkin Park – Houston, TX

8:10 PM ET. Twelve games remain and this series could shape the AL West. Seattle leads, Houston trails by one, Texas sits two back of the Astros. The Rangers can’t afford to get swept, yet the market is leaning Houston’s way because of reputation. The Astros have been here before, so the assumption is they’ll deliver. That assumption is priced in.

On the mound, Jason Alexander’s 4-1 record looks better than Jack Leiter’s 9-8. That’s noise. Their ERAs and xERAs are almost identical, but Leiter’s FIP is a full 0.7 runs better. He also throws harder, misses more bats, and has real swing-and-miss in his profile. Alexander does not.

At +105, we’re getting the better arm and the more desperate club. Houston’s name and postseason pedigree drive the price, not the reality. We’ll take the value on Texas to even the series.

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