Pinnacle  +135 BET365   +135   Sportsinteraction  +135  

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Baltimore +135 over San Diego

PETCO Park – San Diego, CA

4:10 PM ET. This is a fade of Nestor Cortes, plain and simple. The surface numbers (5.06 ERA) already look shaky, but the peripherals are a full-blown alarm: 5.61 xERA, 6.87 FIP, 5.20 SIERA. He walks too many, doesn’t miss bats, induces almost no grounders, and the only thing holding him up is unsustainable luck (.235 BABIP, 85% strand rate). That’s smoke, and the correction is coming.

Baltimore isn’t pretty, but Cade Povich doesn’t need to be dominant — he just needs to be serviceable. His 5+ ERA is variance-heavy, dragged down by a bloated .336 BABIP and 68% strand rate. Strip that out and his 4.16 FIP with a strikeout per inning paints him as a mid-pack arm. That’s more than enough when you’re opposing a starter masquerading as something he’s not.

This is not about trusting Baltimore as much as it is fading San Diego’s overpriced offering. Cortes is the weak link, the line is inflated, and the value lives squarely with the Orioles.

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