Pinnacle  -1½ +140 BET365  -1½ +140   Sportsinteraction  -1½ +140  

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Arizona -1½  +140 over Texas

Chase Field – Phoenix, AZ

3:40 PM ET. Situational betting is what this is all about, and this one checks every box. Texas cannot hit. They sit bottom-third in every meaningful offensive category and still struggle to clear four runs a night. The Rangers live and die by pitching. Arizona, meanwhile, is the opposite — they mash. The Snakes sit top-four in OPS, slugging, and homers, scoring north of five per game.

Enter Jack Leiter. On the surface, he looks competent (3.77 ERA), but the underpinnings scream regression: a .264 BABIP, walk issues, a fly-ball heavy profile, and an xERA closer to 4.60. Against a lineup built to elevate, that’s a dangerous profile.

Zac Gallen, for his part, doesn’t inspire much faith with his 10-13 record and 4.94 ERA, but peel back the layers and he’s steadier than Leiter. Gallen walks fewer, induces more grounders, and his ERA estimators sit below his surface stats. Against a Texas side that can’t play catch-up, he’s in position to dictate.

The environment favors runs (O/U 9.0), the weaker arm is exploitable, and the Rangers don’t have the bats to keep pace if things snowball. That’s the recipe. Arizona on the run line.

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