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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

CINCINNATI -107 over Toronto

Great American Ballpark – Cincinnati, OH

6:40 PM ET The reaction here is predictable. Cincy’s been thumped by contenders for weeks, barely scraped out a win yesterday with Hunter Greene, and the assumption is regression back into the woodchipper. The market, however, disagrees.

Nick Lodolo is the better arm tonight. His 3.22 ERA is backed by a 3.57 xERA, 3.66 FIP, and solid strikeout-to-walk profile. José Berríos? Looks shiny at 9-5 but is living off smoke. His 4.58 xERA and 4.41 FIP show a pitcher getting away with more than he should, and a 39% ground-ball rate is a poor fit for a park where balls fly.

Great American Ballpark rewards the sharper profile, and that’s Lodolo. Toronto’s stock, as usual, is inflated. We're going for the kill. Reds on the Run Line is our call.

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