Pinnacle    -1½ +165 BET365   -1½ +165    Sportsinteraction   -1½ +165  888port   -1½ +165

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Toronto -1½ +165 over Milwaukee

Rogers Centre – Toronto, ON

7:07 PM ET. This is one of those plays where the number tells you everything. Milwaukee owns the best record in baseball. Freddy Peralta is 15-5 with a 2.65 ERA and a sparkling 10-1 run in his last 11 decisions. On the surface, spotting a run and a half with Toronto against that profile looks like lunacy. Then why is Milwaukee taking back a number here? Because the oddsmakers see the cracks.

Peralta’s line is variance-driven, not skill-driven: .245 BABIP, 85% strand rate, a 38% groundball profile that doesn’t play well against Toronto’s launch-heavy attack. Meanwhile, the Jays counter with Shane Bieber, still settling into his new surroundings but more than capable of delivering five to six solid innings to keep Toronto in control.

When the best team in baseball is dogged up against a middling AL club, the market is bait. It’s dangling Milwaukee to lure in action while setting Toronto up to cash at a margin. Peralta’s bubble is ripe to pop, and the Jays have the bats to blow it wide open. Play it at the run line.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

v