Pinnacle   +115 BET365  +115    Sportsinteraction  +115  888port  +115

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Miami +115 over Atlanta

Loandepot Park – Miami, FL

1:10 PM ET. This one is lined like a coin flip, which means the play is automatic: take the plus money. Joey Wentz goes for Atlanta with a 4-4 record and a 5.25 ERA, while Miami counters with Ryan Gusto, sitting 7-with a 5.05 ERA. Same ballpark profile, same middling arms.

The surface stats mirror each other, and the under-the-hood numbers back that up. Wentz owns a 4.39 xERA and 4.12 FIP, while Gusto checks in at 4.16 xERA and 4.11 FIP. That’s as close as it gets. Dig deeper into the variance profile and you’ll see Gusto has actually been the more unlucky of the two — saddled with a .323 BABIP versus Wentz’s .302, and a strand rate just four ticks higher.

So why is Atlanta favored here? Yesterday. The Braves mashed Miami 11-2, and now the market is leaning toward “repeat” instead of recognizing the context. Blowouts create perception, perception creates inflation, and that’s our opening.

In a game with no true edge in the arms and nothing separating these lineups to justify the tax, the only move is to line up with the dog. Miami’s the more efficient pitcher, they’re at home, and they’re priced like they’ve already lost.

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