Pinnacle   +100   BET365  +100  Sportsinteraction   +100   888port   +100

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

St. Louis +100 over Chicago

Busch Stadium – St. Louis, MO

7:10 PM ET. You’ve heard it before—better pitcher at a better number is never wrong, and this one checks every box. The market is in love with the Cubs. They’re hot. They’re flashy. They look like contenders while St. Louis is just trying to punch a Wild Card ticket. That’s all fine, but it’s also all noise, and it’s leading to a soft price on the true value side.

Shota Imanaga is the guy with the glittery stat line—3.12 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 8 wins. But those numbers are fraudulent once you peel back the curtain. He’s living off a .225 BABIP and an 86% strand rate, which are both screaming regression. Meanwhile, Sonny Gray’s surface ERA (4.21) doesn’t tell his story at all—because he’s been punished by a .328 BABIP and a 68% strand rate. Once we neutralize the noise, the truth emerges:

K/9: Gray 9.89 → Imanaga 7.07

BB/9: Gray 1.07 → Imanaga 1.44 (Gray's command is elite)

FIP: Gray 3.09 → Imanaga 4.48

SIERA: Gray 3.13 → Imanaga 4.47

WAR: Gray 3.0 → Imanaga 0.9

GB%: Gray 41% → Imanaga 27% (critical in this ballpark)

Imanaga is a flyball pitcher in a park that doesn’t forgive mistakes. His underlying profile says average, and average doesn’t beat elite—especially when elite is priced at even money.

This is pure math. We’re not betting emotions, rivalries, or records—we’re betting skill. And Sonny Gray gives the Redbirds the edge where it matters most: on the bump.

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