Arizona @ St. Louis
Arizona -101 over St. Louis

Posted on April 22 prior to Game 2. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -101 BET365  -110 Sportsinteraction   -110 888Sport  -110

Arizona -101 over St. Louis

7:45 PM EST. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP - ARI) has walked only three batters in 23 innings this season, supported by his strong 78% first-pitch strike rate. The long ball has been his issue, allowing four across his last three starts. One of those starts was against the Cardinals, which resulted in a disaster back on April 12 but don’t put too much emphasis on early starts. Brandon Pfaadt has upper-rotation upside but isn't priced as such. A 5.72 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 96 innings during his 2023 rookie season is the driver of that perception. Still, he was a highly touted prospect and his swing and miss progress and elite control proves he's not some passing fad.

Lance Lynn (RHP - St. L) is 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA after four starts. The chances of Ron Goldman grieving over O.J.’s death is greater than Lance Lynn sustaining this success. Last year. Lynn was continually hammered by the longball in one of the worst seasons for any 2023 starter. Brutal luck factors, xERA screamed regression in the first half, but in the second half K% and skills tanked despite July trade to L.A. This year, he’s faced Oakland once, Miami once in which he was hammered, Dodgers once and Phillies once. He faced 17 batters against the Dodgers and got extremely lucky to escape unscathed. His 88% strand rate is about to cave in to match his xERA of over 5. Lance Lynn is worth fading when he’s favored or near a pick ‘em because the Cardinals chances of losing when he starts is far greater than their chances of winning. This one is no exception.

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For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins

Toronto -115

Kansas City -105

That’s a 20 cent margin but at Pinnacle, it’ll be a 9 cent margin (see example)

Toronto -111

Kansas City +102

If you bet on sports daily, Pinnacle is a must have because of their low margins.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Arizona -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)

San Francisco +103 over Boston
Houston -1½ +155 over Cleveland