Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +142 BET365 +140 Sportsinteraction +138 888Sport +140

Cincinnati +142 over Boston

7:10 PM EST. Chris Sale (LHP - BOS) clocked an 8.22 ERA through his first five starts, but he owns a 2.23 mark over his last five turns, which allows us to sell high on him here. Those last five starts have seen Sale compile 32.1 IP, while walking just four batters but he could be tested here, facing a Reds club that has thus far notched a .771 OPS against LHPs. Cincinnati owns an .822 OPS overall since May 17.

Boston is a game over .500 but they are just 3-7 over its last 10 games. Perhaps they greatly overachieved in the first two months, as every publication had them finishing well below .500. The Red Sox got off to a hot start but have cooled off considerably but the prices on them have not. Aside from that, it’s rare to get such a great price on a pitcher like Hunter Greene (RHP - CIN) so we’ll try to capitalize.

Hunter Greene has put up a 4.18 ERA and 1.38 WHIP after 56 innings but those marks have been driven by a 10-point jump in his unlucky hit rate (30% to 40%). His stuff remains electric (15.3% swing and miss rate), and his skills have been better in 2023 (3.39 xERA) than last season (3.92 xERA). Greene has an absolute elite 80 K’s in 56 innings. His xERA in his last two games is 2.12. One would be hard-pressed to find more value on an elite starter than the value being offered here.

Sherwood

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