Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +119 BET365 +115 Sportsinteraction +114 888Sport +110

Philadelphia +119 over N.Y. Mets

7:10 PM EST. Ranger Suarez (LHP - PHI) will get the start for the Phillies, but he is not the story here. That said, his less-than-stellar surface numbers across 11 innings and three starts serve us well here because he and the Phillies are underpriced in what appears to be a 50/50 proposition. We'll note that while the sample size is small, Suarez appears to have his ground ball rate at its regular elite self at 51.4%. While Suarez's 9.82 surface ERA, his xERA is 3.16. Better days are coming for that artificially bloated surface ERA.

The Mets will go with Kodai Senga (RHP - NYM) to the mound, and truth be told, we would back Senga and the Mets in the right situation if they were an underdog, but they are not. However, just because this looks like a coin flip does not mean we do not have a target. Tonight, that target is the Mets' bats against left-handed pitching. New York is in the bottom half of the league in Average (19th), On-Base Percentage (19th), and Slugging Percentage (21st) across 578 at-bats this season. Give us the edge on "heads" in a situation like this, and we're going to take it every time.

Finnie

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------