Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 1:45 PM EST and odds are subject to change.
Boston +100 over Baltimore
7:05 PM EST. Of all the other teams in the AL East (Toronto, New York and Tampa), we have to trust that Boston would be most fired up to play the role of the spoiler against the Orioles. Why? You see, Baltimore was supposed to finish in last place by a country mile and now the Red Sox are looking up at Baltimore in the standings. That cannot be sitting well with anyone in that Boston dugout. It’s embarrassing while looking up at the aforementioned other three is not. A fired up Boston team with a chance to make life miserable for the Orioles has a lot of appeal here this weekend.
Furthermore, Brayan Bello (RHP - BOS) returned from the minors on August 24 and has looked like a brand new man by allowing three runs or less over those three starts with a 22.2% strikeout rate. Bello has 14 K’s over his last 15 frames with an off-the-charts 58% groundball rate. His confidence is back.
Austin Voth (RHP - BAL) broke his nose on a HBP in June of last year and his skills tanked the rest of the way. He started this year in the pen and ultimately made his way into the rotation when the Orioles needed arms. A velocity uptick was likely related to shorter stints that drove his swing and miss and K% gains up. That uptick has been washed away since the 30-year-old journeyman was promoted to the rotation. Voth has appeared in 36 games this season with 13 coming as a starter. His ERA is 4.41. His ERA over his past five starts is 2.05 but that mark is a result of extreme luck, as evidenced by his 4.84 xERA with 19 K’s and 8 walks issued over 26 frames during that span. Without a league-average mark in any of his skills, returning to the rotation next year isn’t likely. Fade now because that window won’t be open much longer. Wrong side favored.
Boston +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)