Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 11:45 AM EST and odds are subject to change.
Tampa Bay -1½ +130 over Boston
6:40 PM EST. We see no reason to not come right back on the Rays again today. The price isn’t as good today as it was yesterday but we’re still taking back a price on the Rays to win by two or more. After yesterday’s 8=4 victory, Tampa has won 13 of 16 and seven of its last eight.
Jeffrey Springs (LHP - TAM) has emerged as one of the best in the game over the last 365 days. He has a 2.72 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 160 frames over that span. His skills have been legit too with a 27% K%, 5% BB%, 22% K-BB%, 40% grounders and a rock solid 3.43 xERA. He has generated whiffs at an elite rate and his command is also elite. Springs has a BB/K split of 26/117 and 107 innings this year. He attacks hitters relentlessly with an assortment of pitches and he can change speeds too.
Nick Pivetta (RHP - BOS) departed his last outing with a left calf contusion, but he is expected to go here. On paper, Pivetta isn’t the worst Red Sox starter but he might be the most hittable. He comes in with a 4.37/4.33 ERA/xERA. Not bad but not great either, which sums up his career and season of being a mid-rotation starter and it's hard to see a path to something more. Pivetta’s hard-hit contact warts haven't gone away; max exit velocity is in the game's bottom five percent. That means the elevated hit rates that have haunted him in the past are headed back. He’s capable of getting lit and it’s also worth noting that collectively, the hottest team in baseball has plenty of AB’s against Pivetta.
Tampa Bay -1½ +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)