Milwaukee @ Colorado
Colorado -1½ +200 over Milwaukee

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Posted at 12:15 PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Colorado -1½ +200 over Milwaukee

4:10 PM EST. We bet Ryan Feltner's (RHP - COL) and the Rockies taking back +260 in Feltner’s last start in Atlanta. We lost that bet but Colorado outhit Atlanta 5-4 and Feltner was very, very good once again. On paper Feltner is not having a great year with a 5.78 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, but he's been hurt quite a bit by a low strand rate and by the park he pitches in. The Rockies' constant shuttling of Feltner between Triple-A and the majors this season probably hasn't helped him do his best work. Feltner’s line-drive rate of 15% in 67 innings this year is a top-10 mark among qualified starters, which backs our position that he’s capable of dominating. As an underdog here, the Rockies and Feltner offer up tremendous value but at Coors, we always.

There are plenty of reasons to fade Adrian Houser (RHP - MIL) but we’ll just give you five to start off with. 1) Walks rising; 2) swing and miss rate plunging; 3) xERA/xWHIP in steep decline; 5.88/1.52 4) dominant start/disaster start split is horrific 5) hit-rate/strand rate working overtime to paper over his 2nd-half collapse. We’ll give you one last nugget. Adrian Houser has been about the worst road starter in MLB with a (6.69 ERA, 1.66 WHIP in 39 IP), due in large part to a complete lack of skills away from home that include a 6% swing and miss rate with a rancid BB/K split of 21/26 to go along with a .302 BAA. Today Houser is pitching at Coors and he’s favored.

Hunter Brown (RHP - HOU), the Astros’ top pitching prospect, is being called up to make his major league debut. The 24-year-old righty has been considered among the organization’s most valuable prospects since Brown’s breakout campaign in 2021, which saw him rise quickly from Double-A to Triple-A. He has followed that performance up swimmingly, posting a 2.55 ERA, 11.4 K’s/9, and 3.8 BB/9 in 106 IP. Brown’s healthy strikeout rate is impressive, though his consistently mediocre swing and miss rate (11.9% this season) calls into question how well it will translate to the majors. The largest concern with his present profile is his control, which, while currently manageable, may also be cause for a rocky transition to the next level. Brown struggles to land first pitches for strikes (55.8%) which limits his ability to keep runners off the basepaths (though he has improved since last season). Much of his success in the minors can be his consistent ability to keep the ball on the ground, posting ground-ball rates frequently over 50% which naturally helps to reduce his hit rate and HR allowed. If he can manage to shore up his control and continue inducing grounders, Brown has a decent shot of sticking in the majors. As a big favorite to start his career, there is no value in getting behind him.

Our Pick

Colorado -1½ +200 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.00)