Pittsburgh @ Toronto
Pittsburgh +217 over Toronto

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Posted at 1:30 PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh +217 over Toronto

6:35 PM EST. The Blue Jays were swept by the Angels last week in Toronto. They then hosted the Cubs and took two of three but they were lucky to win one, let alone two after being outhit by the Cubs in all three games and having to rally from behind in both victories. Toronto is too loosey goosey instead of being intense and extremely focused. Every player in the dugout is having more fun than the next guy. There is a time and place for everything and right now that lack of intensity makes the Blue Jays a massive risk spotting prices like this. They are not playing well.

Alek Manoah (RHP - TOR) has ridden a 27% hit rate and 79% strand rate more than electric skills to get his sub-3.00 ERA. That said, Manoah's skills against righty bats suggest his skills have good growth potential: 29% K%, 4% BB%, 25% K-BB%, 45% grounders with a 3.28 xERA. He also peppers the strike zone against them (32% Ball%). His strikeouts, groundballs, and strike volume all dry up against LH: 18% K%, 8% BB%, 32% grounders, 36% Ball%, 4.52 xERA. The Pirates will send a bunch of left-handed batters to the plate here.

Pittsburgh acquired RHP Johan Oviedo and a prospect for LHP Jose Quintana and RHP Chris Stratton at the deadline. The trade of Quintana opened up innings in the Pittsburgh rotation. At that time, we anticipated those innings would be filled eventually by RHP Roansy Contreras. Now it's Oviedo’s turn. Oviedo has shown some promise with a high-octane arsenal that he’s yet been able to control, though he had fared better in the bullpen for St. Louis this season. Still, he has 26 K’s in 25 frames with the support of a 14% swing and miss rate. With his fastball velocity and size (listed at 6-foot-5 and 245 lbs), Oviedo seems like he has the potential to be a hard-throwing strikeout machine.

Oviedo has been around for a while. The Cardinals wanted him so badly that they lured him with a $1.9 million bonus in 2016 despite no Triple-A experience. He has a large presence on the mound and a bevy of interesting pitches that he can change speeds on. He has now paid his dues in the minors and could be a great undervalued commodity in the final month.

Our Pick

Pittsburgh +217 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.34)