Seattle @ Detroit
Detroit +135 over Seattle

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Posted at 12:45 PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Detroit +135 over Seattle

7:10 PM EST. We could tell you all about Tyler Alexander (LHP - DET) and his worrisome xERA that shows this year has not really been a step forward. His good control and effectiveness are assets, but his frightening dominant start/disaster start split and paltry swing and miss rate are all results of getting exposed vR in the starter’s role. Thing is, we don’t care who is starting for the Tigers because we must fade Seattle’s overpriced starter here.

Marco Gonzalez (LHP - SEA) faces a Detroit offense which is much more accomplished against lefties (.687 OPS) than against RHPs (.586). Gonzales has logged a 7.06 ERA and 1.94 WHIP over his last four road starts; for the season those road figures sit at 4.60 and 1.61, respectively. The Tigers have banged out an .806 OPS in their last five games. Gonzales is no better or worse than Alexander. He’s a weak starter that is favored at an absurd price (-160) on the road. His xERA this year is 4.98 and that’s after pitching half his games at one of the best pitcher parks in the majors. xERA does not consider park factors so Gonzales’ xERA is actually worse than it appears. Dude has a brutal BB/K split of 43/79 in 141 frames and today he’s priced like he’s Randy Johnson. Jesus H. Let’s get it.

Our Pick

Detroit +135 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)