Baltimore @ Cleveland
Baltimore +130 over Cleveland

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Posted at 2:00 PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Baltimore +130 over Cleveland

6:10 PM EST. “Ultimately, I have to tether my decisions to the outlook and the probabilities of this year. We have a shot at a wild card right now but it is not a probability that we’re going to win a wild card.” —Mike Elias, August 1.

Four weeks is a long time. When Elias made the call to trade clubhouse leader Trey Mancini and closer Jorge López, the Orioles stood at 51-51, looking up at more talented and more likely playoff contenders. It was a real-life Major League scenario, except the “they” in the “they didn’t believe in us” was also “us.” The part of the whole responsible for playing the games responded, going 16-8 and establishing that yes, there very much was a probability of winning the Wild Card.

What’s most amazing about the Baltimore Orioles isn’t even that they’re here: It’s how they’re here. This isn’t the story of a single breakout, a 2020 Cedric Mullins coming out of nowhere. This Orioles ballclub is a model of depth, an inconceivable sentence to type given that this rebuild has been symbolized by Mikael Franco and Rougned Odor, a collection of castoffs killing time together. The preseason Orioles roster was in danger of forfeiting from a lack of major-league players; the situation transformed over a matter of months, almost invisibly. The 2022 Baltimore Orioles are an actual good team. Over the last month, the Orioles have series wins over Houston, the White Sox, Boston, four out of five over Toronto and others.

Today, the Orioles will face a very beatable starter in Cal Quantrill (RHP - CLE), who continues to defy the odds and has his ERA down to 3.59 through 24 starts, despite a 4.44 xERA, 8.1% swing and miss rate, and 16% K%. In his last four starts he has held the Astros, Blue Jays, and Padres scoreless in 20 frames so his stock is high but trust us when we suggest everything was hit at people. Notwithstanding, he did allow four runs to the Tigers in the other one. Quantrill is 6-0 with a 3.38 ERA, thanks to extremely favorable hit and strand rates that are not sustainable, thus his recent hot streak isn't sustainable either. Cal Quantrill cannot be -150 favorite because he’s a below average pitcher so let’s see if the Orioles can crack this nut too.

Our Pick

Baltimore +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)