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+230+225  +225

Posted at 4:00 PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh +230 over Philadelphia

7:05 PM EST. When a starter like Bailey Falter (RHP - PHI) is a damn near 3-1 favorite, we’ll throw away money all day long. Here’s a guy with one victory this year in 12 appearances including eight starts and he’s priced like he’s Bobby Fischer in a game of chess against Donald Trump. Falter has an ERA of 4.40 with an xERA of 4.60. Pitching in Philadelphia’s home-run hitting park, Falter has heavy fly-ball lean of 53% with one of the lowest groundball rates (27%) in the league. Every batter that makes contact has a shot to hit it out and it’s not like he’s striking out a high percentage either.

Bryse Wilson (RHP - PIT) throws both a 2-seam and 4-seam fastball with good results, but all of his offspeed pitches (slider, curve, and change-up) lack putaway qualities. As a result, he’s struggled at this level with a 5.74 ERA through 78 innings covering 14 starts and three relief appearances. Pretty on paper it is not. Last year at about this same time, Wilson took the mound against Arizona after Jonathan Brubaker ended up on the DL and went out and tossed five scoreless innings. Still young at the age of 24, he’s shown flashes but there's still a lot of work to do before we’d categorize him as an undervalued pitcher but this isn’t about getting behind Wilson. No, it’s about fading an opposing pitcher that is usually an underdog but today he’s priced like he’s the best pitcher in baseball.