Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 11:30 AM EST and odds are subject to change.
Houston -1½ +115 over Minnesota
8:10 PM EST. We get the Astronauts here at a decent price because their starting pitcher, Luis Garcia (RHP - HOU) has struggled miserably on the surface over his last five starts with an ERA of 5.46. However, underneath the hood, Garcia has been rock solid, just like he’s quietly been all year. In fact, he has posted an elite rate of swinging strikes in four separate months. He has 127 K’s in 123 innings with a skills supported 13.7% swing and miss rate. He has good command of five pitches highlighted by his cutter, with room for K% improvement per excellent swing and miss rate. A favorable strand rate shows a bit of luck but his strong overall skills paint an encouraging picture for strong start after strong start. Garcia will now face a Twins’ team in an extended team-wide slump which has seen them plummet to four games back in the AL Central.
Chris Archer (RHP - MIN) can barely get through four innings these days. His last two games look good on paper but it’s worth noting that he faced Texas and the Angels. Prior to that, he last 4 innings against Detroit, When he faced the Brewers in Milwaukee, the last difficult spot he was in, he lasted three innings after surrendering six runs. Archer has walked 12 batters over his last 20 frames. His WAR is minus, meaning one could choose any pitcher in the entire league and taht replacement pitcher would have a better chance of winning than Chris Archer. Today, Aaron Nola is a -330 favorite. deGrom is -4.25. The Twins look awful at the plate and they have an awful starter today but we get to fade ‘em at half the price one has to pay to back the aforementioned other two.
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Houston -1½ +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)