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+105  +100   +105

Posted at 12:30 PM EST and are subject to change.

The best price available to us is at Pinnacle with the White Sox +115.

Chicago +115 over Houston

8:10 PM EST. Justin Verlander (RHP - HOU) made just one start in the past two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September of 2020, but he has shown very little rust with a 1.85 ERA through 21 starts. The ERA is the best of his career but we’ll reiterate that he’s been very fortunate. While his velocity returned intact, his swing and miss rate and K% are way down from his 2018-19 levels. Verlander is still allowing a lot of fly-balls but continues to do a good job of suppressing hard contact, currently ranking in the 73rd-percentile in HardHit% per Baseball Savant. He hasn't had a HR/9 under 1.2 since 2015, though, so odds are a few more balls will leave the park against him down the stretch. Not only has he benefited from a low HR/F, but both his hit % and strand % are on the lucky side of normal levels as well. Verlander currently leads all qualified starters in ERA and wins. However, he has hit the trifecta of good fortune with his HR/F, hit rate and strand rate. He’s good but he’s not even close to being the best pitcher in baseball. In fact, he’s not even the best starter in this game. That honor belongs to Dylan Cease (RHP - CHW).

Dylan Cease has the best swing and miss rate in the majors at 19% since the All-Star break. Overall, he has 174 K’s in 129 innings. Since the break, he has posted a league best 0.87 ERA with an absolute elite xERA of 2.77. He’s 12-5 overall and the fact that he’s an underdog at home here, even against the Astronauts, is bordering on absurd