Washington @ Arizona
Arizona -1 +165 over Washington

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Posted at 10:45 AM EST and are subject to change.

Arizona -1½ +165 over Washington

4:10 PM EST. We have to trust that we’re getting the Diamondbacks at a bargain here. On the money-line, Arizona is just -120 but regular readers of this space know we don’t spot 20 cents in anything so that gladly leaves us with the Snakes at -1½ with a juicy +165 takeback and it’s because Arizona has an unknown starting in Corbin Martin (RHP - ARI). We’ll get to him in a moment. If we remove the starters from this equation or call it a wash, we have Arizona with a respectable 23-26 home record while the Nats overall are 31-64. If one is going to bet on Washington, shouldn’t one want more than even money on the road considering the Nats average 2½ wins per week? Washington is getting a bit too much credit here because of Arizona’s unknown starter with his 4.40 ERA after a mere 14 innings pitched, all in relief.

Drafted in 2017 in the second round by the Astronauts, Corbin Martin was a fast mover with near front-line stuff. At 6’2” and 200 pounds, he operates with three pitches in his fastball, curve and slider that flash plus and feature high spin rates, alongside strides made with his changeup. Martin would get in 32.2 IP post draft, and then open 2018 in high Single-A, not giving up a run in 19 IP and striking out 26 before a quick promotion to Double-A Corpus Christi where he similarly pitched well. The strikeouts dropped a bit but Martin featured a solid groundball tilt and his four-pitch mix made him difficult to hit, with a .221 oppBA in Double-A, alongside both mid-season and postseason All-Star selections.

Fast forward to 2021 where Martin’s mid-rotation starting upside had trouble staying on the field. Martin pitched admirably over his first three professional seasons, reaching the majors in 2019 before blowing his elbow out and undergoing Tommy John surgery that would keep him out for the rest of 2019 and most of 2020. An oblique strain would cost him the remainder of the 2020 season he was preparing to return before being dealt to the Diamondbacks in the Zack Greinke trade. At his best, Martin has a solid four-pitch mix, highlighted by a plus, mid-90s fastball, and two above-average breaking balls in his slider and curveball. The changeup has started flashing above-average as well, but it's still a work in progress. Martin's delivery is very easy, and he's shown average control so far up the ladder. He now gets a chance to start and we have to trust he’ll be excited and ready to earn a spot in the rotation. Starting is the role he thrived in during his minor-league career and he’s paid his dues. Incidentally, in his 14 innings in relief, he struck out 14 batters. Martin may only go three or four innings but we’ll live with whatever he delivers.

Eric Fedde (RHP- WAS) as an even money road pooch must be faded. In 18 starts this year, Fedde has an ERA/xERA split of 4.91/5.00 with a lousy 67 strikeouts in 88 innings with a brutal swing and miss rate of 6.6%. Not only is Fedde unable to miss bats, he’s not throwing the ball over the plate (39% ball%) with 43 walks already in 88 innings. Almost every road starter today is superior to Eric Fedde but few are taking back a smaller price than Washington. That’s value and it’s also our prompt to move in.

Our Pick

Arizona -1 +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)

Colorado +206 over St. Louis
Oakland +168 over Texas
Toronto +131 over N.Y. Yankees