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 -1½ +190    -1½ +200

Posted at 3:00 PM EST and are subject to change.

Pittsburgh -1½ +193 over Washington

Erick Fedde (RHP - WAS) entered the 2022 season with some sneaky breakout appeal given how he finished 2021. So far, he has provided the Nats with a 4.46 ERA and 1.47 WHIP through 14 starts. Truth be told, Fedde's skills haven't been good at all: 21% K%, 11% BB%, 10% K-BB%, 43% grounders 5.43 xERA. He's not missing any bats (7.7% overall and 6.3% swing and miss rate over his last five starts), nor is he throwing the ball over the plate (39% ball%). When we can get this price to beat Fedde and the Nats by two runs or more, we’ll almost always step in. 

Miguel Yajure (RHP - PIT) is one of the many interesting IFA arms the Yankees signed and developed over the past six years. 6'1" and 220 pounds, Yajure has a Tommy John surgery already under the hood and entered the Pirates system as part of the 2020 trade for Jameson Taillon (RHP, NYY). Yajure has progressed on the back of a solid feel for pitching rather than standout stuff. As he's come back from his 2017 surgery, Yajure's velocity has crept up to the mid-90s and is sitting 93 more regularly now. The young Venezuelan now operates with five distinct pitches (fastball, curve, change-up, cutter and slider), all of them hanging around solid-average to above-average. There's still more seasoning to be done to get him humming in a starting role, and it seems that Yajure has had difficulty transitioning in and out of the bullpen. Still, there's plus command projection in the profile, and should he find any more heat and/or pushes a secondary into solid plus, he would easily eclipse his No. 4 starter projection. It might be a bumpy ride, but there's a lot of long-term variables to bet on here. 

Don’t pay any attention to Yajure's relief work this year at this level. It’s a small, 10-inning sample size. He’s more comfortable in a starting role, as his 70 starts at minor-league levels over the past few years will attest to.  Furthermore, the Pirates, despite getting swept in Tampa, have been scoring runs in bunches (45 runs over their past 8 games) so they have just as good a chance of scoring a bunch off Fedde as Washington does off of Yajure.