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 -1½ +220     -1½ +220

Posted at 2:05 PM EST and are subject to change.

Oakland -1½ +220 over Seattle

9:40 PM EST. Though James Kaprielian (RHP - OAK) is throwing a little harder than he did in 2021, everything else has taken a turn for the worse. The walks are up (10% BB%), the strikeouts are way down (15% K%), and his swing and miss rate is down to 9.4%, leading to a 6.31 ERA and 5.62 xERA. Kaprielian has served up nine homers across 28.2 IP in his last six starts, while recording more than three strikeouts just once in that span. However, the matchup here isn’t overly imposing as Seattle is 26th in runs per game on the road. Besides, this wager is more about playing Oakland to beat Seattle while fading Seattle’s garbage starter. The A’s are +125 to win outright and while that is certainly an option, the value on the alternative run line is striking. Let’s go!

What’s also striking is that Moneyball is 8-25 at home. That’s almost surreal and it’s also in line for a massive correction to the good. Oakland has remained highly competitive since 1997. That’s when Billy Beane succeeded Sandy Alderson as GM. The A’s were turned into one of the most cost-effective teams in baseball, which is the way they have been operating since. Since Oakland’s model has been so successful for 25 years, one has to assume that most or all of Oakland’s players have underperformed up to this point, which is the reason we’re suggesting that a correction is coming.

Oakland won 4-0 at home on Sunday and will open up a set against the beatable and reeling Mariners here with Marco Gonzalez (LHP - SEA) starting. Gonzales is sitting on a 5-plus xERA for the third time in four seasons but is still somehow managing to keep his ERA below 4.00. Both his 14% K% and 7.8% swing and miss rate are career-lows, and point to regression ahead. Oakland got to Gonzales for a season-high 5 earned runs last time he faced them and there’s no reason to believe they can’t knock him around again. Gonzales is a weak pitcher that is not worthy of being road chalk.