Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 2:30 PM EST and are subject to change.
Cincinnati +135 over Arizona
9:40 PM EST. We’re not going to spend a lot of time on Mike Minor (LHP - CIN), as he has made just two starts this season. However, it’s worth pointing out that Minor is still sitting batters down with eight strikeouts across eight innings pitched in those two outings. One figures Minor will get stronger the more he pitches. We'll live with whatever he brings to the table here because Arizona probably shouldn't be priced in this range against anyone.
Merrill Kelly (RHP - ARI) is coming off a gem against these Reds last Wednesday, but a second look at him so soon might not be to Kelly’s benefit. Merrill Kelly got off to an excellent start this season but recently hit a rough patch in which he had an ugly 11/13 K/BB over a four-start span, with 16 ER allowed in 17 IP. Kelly has a 1.70 WHIP over his last five starts with an ERA/xERA split of 6.28/6.09 to go along with a weak 8.6% swing and miss rate.
When looking for value, this game stuck out like a sore thumb. The Diamondbacks were a small pooch in Cincinnati in this exact same pitching matchup just five days ago. Now the Snakes are laying some pretty heavy lumber. Is this change in venue really worth this discrepancy in price? From our perch, the answer is no, especially when Arizona is facing left-handed pitching. No team in baseball whiffs more against lefties than the Snakes.
Cincinnati +135 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)