Detroit @ Pittsburgh
Detroit +111 over Pittsburgh

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Posted at 11:30 AM EST and are subject to change.

Detroit +111 over Pittsburgh

12:35 PM EST. Alex Faedo (RHP - DET) is a former first-round pick who has fallen behind other SP prospects in the Detroit organization. He's healthy again in 2022 and has six starts thus far. While his skills haven't been great, he has shown good building blocks in that tiny sample size: 12.6% swing & miss rate, 70% first-pitch strikes. 30% ball%. Faedo is a longshot to make a consistent impact, but he still has enough upside to warrant our attention when taking back a tag in Pittsburgh against Mitch Keller.

There was significant buzz around Mitch Keller (RHP - PIT) this spring, as he showcased a revamped delivery and increased velocity. However, with a 5.77 ERA and 1.56 WHIP through 44 innings, it hasn’t translated into results. What’s going on here is a mix of bad luck and so-so skills. That’s not a good combo. The 2.2 mph velocity uptick has carried over from spring into the 2022 season but it’s taking a toll. In fact, Keller has walked 10 and struck out 13 over his last 16 innings. Walking guys is a sure sign of fatigue. His swing & miss rate/K% hasn’t moved much because just one of his offerings has garnered a rate better than 10% (slider: 14%). Keller’s improved velocity has accomplished jack except for making him work harder and get fatigued quicker. His swing and miss rate last game was 6%. His first-pitch strike rate over his last three games is 51%. His secondaries are weak and so is the team he pitches for.

Detroit took the opener last night 5-3 but belted out 11 hits and made several bone-headed base-running errors. The Tigers have also won six of their last 10 but take out a three-game sweep by red-hot Boston and they have won six of seven. No reason to bail here.

Our Pick

Detroit +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto