San Francisco @ Miami
Miami +105 over San Francisco

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Posted at 12:00 PM EST and are subject to change.

Miami +105 over San Francisco

1:40 PM EST. The Marlins are a team we’ve featured in this space multiple times this season, as they are a talented club that has yet to reach its full potential. That means on many days, they are undervalued. With Braxton Garrett (RHP - MIA) making his first start of the season, this appears to be one of those spots. We’re not going to get into Garrett too much, but we will point out that he’s got pedigree as a former #7 overall pick in 2016 and this is not his first taste of the majors after he started seven games in 2021. We like it when these top prospects have debuted and got a taste, but then have been sent back down for some more seasoning. Garrett doesn’t figure to be bright eyed and bushy tailed on this trip to the show.

This is a fade on Jakob Junis (RHP - SF), who defies logic by continuing to get looks as a starter in the bigs. On the surface, it may look like that Bay Area magic has been sprinkled on Junis, as he sports a tidy 2.68 ERA this season, but a quick look shows that number is smoke and mirrors with his xERA coming in at 4.16. An 82.8% strand rate shows that he’s been lucky, as does his .238 mark on Batting Average in Balls in Play (BABIP). Junis’ strikeout rate has seen a major dip in his move from the AL Central to the NL West, as he went from punching out over a batter an inning in 2021 to a non-threatening 6.57 K/9 here in 2022. 

Our Pick

Miami +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)